Wholesale Market Watch: When Supply, Not Demand, Sets the Market

Singapore Wholesale Market Insights | 12–17 January 2026

The Singapore wholesale fruit market remains firmly in a defensive phase. WK03 offered little evidence of a demand-led recovery. Instead, pricing across categories continues to be dictated almost entirely by supply dislocations, logistics decisions, and origin-side constraints, rather than by any meaningful pickup in end-consumption.

This distinction matters. When demand is healthy, price signals are broad-based and self-reinforcing. When demand is weak, price becomes fragmented, strong only where supply is genuinely scarce, and fragile everywhere else.

That is precisely the market we are operating in today.

Blueberries: Scarcity Still Wins

Blueberries were one of the few categories to show clear price resilience this week. The reason is straightforward: availability is tight.

With limited arrivals, buyers had little choice but to accept firmer pricing. This is a textbook example of supply-led price support. Importantly, the firmness is not demand-driven—volumes remain measured—but scarcity alone has been sufficient to hold prices up.

This dynamic is unlikely to reverse until replenishment improves meaningfully.

Citrus: Structural Oversupply, Not a Timing Issue

Citrus remains under sustained pressure.

Additional lemon arrivals—particularly from China—continued to compress pricing. This is no longer a short-term fluctuation; it reflects structural oversupply relative to current consumption levels.

Mandarins are facing a similar trajectory. With more China-origin fruit arriving ahead of the Lunar New Year, near-term price relief looks improbable. Even seasonal demand uplift may struggle to absorb the incoming volume.

Egyptian navels are also arriving in greater quantities, adding to the overall weight on the citrus complex.

Key takeaway: citrus pricing weakness is supply-driven and persistent, not cyclical.

Grapes: Premium Holds, Value Is Missing

The grape market offers an instructive contrast.

This week’s supply was concentrated almost entirely in premium SKUs—Australian Sunrise Red, Sweet Globe, and Peru Autumn Crisps. These lines were able to hold higher price points, not because demand is strong, but because buyers seeking reliability and quality have limited alternatives.

What was notably absent were value-oriented or prepack formats. Without these, participation across the broader trade remains thin.

Premium grapes can hold value in a weak market—but only selectively and in controlled volumes.

Melons: When Supply Returns, Prices Adjust Quickly

Rockmelon availability improved during the week, and prices responded immediately, sliding a few dollars lower.

This reinforces a recurring theme: in today’s market, price elasticity is high. Any increase in supply is met with a swift price adjustment, regardless of origin or historical benchmarks.

Pome Fruit: Tight, but Uneven

Green apples and Packham pears remain constrained, particularly in mainstream origins. Argentine Packham pears, however, are being quoted at extremely elevated levels, pricing that reflects scarcity, not necessarily tradability.

At these levels, substitution and buyer resistance become real risks.

Avocados: Stabilisation After the Run-Up

Australian avocado prices stabilised this week after a steady climb in prior weeks. This pause is less a sign of softening demand and more an indication that the market is finding a temporary equilibrium between replacement cost and buyer tolerance.

Further movements will depend on upcoming arrivals and origin-side costs.

Cherries: Supply Is Up, But the Market Is Tiered

Cherry volumes increased meaningfully, especially from Chile, as shipments were diverted away from China.

However, this is not a uniform market:

• Airflown cherries from Chile, Argentina, and Tasmania continue to command premium prices, supported by quality and immediacy.

• Sea-freight cherries, while more available, face greater resistance and tighter margins.

This bifurcation underscores how logistics and freshness now matter as much as origin in price formation.

Final Thoughts: A Market Defined by Selectivity

The current wholesale environment is not one of recovery; it is one of selection.

Buyers are not broadly bullish, but they are still willing to pay for:

• Genuine scarcity

• Consistent quality

• Supply certainty

For importers and traders, the lesson is clear: price alone does not move fruit in a weak market, positioning does.

At 3YY Fresh, we continue to focus on reading these signals early, managing supply discipline, and aligning product flow with where the market is truly willing to transact—not where we hope it will be.