Week 6 Market Update: The Great Pre-CNY Clearance & The Cherry Price Crash
- 3YY
- 12 minutes ago
- 3 min read
By 3YY FRESH Strategy Team
The wholesale market in Singapore has entered the final critical stretch before the Chinese New Year (CNY). Week 6 kicked off sluggishly due to Prayer Day on Monday, creating a compressed trading window that forced importers into aggressive "clearance mode" by mid-week.
While momentum picked up from Wednesday onward, sentiment remains lacklustre and highly selective. The market isn't building fresh positions; it is frantically trying to clear existing floors.
Here is the deep dive into what is moving—and what is dropping—in this week’s wholesale landscape.
1. The Cherry Market Correction
The headline story of Week 6 is the sharp price compression in cherries. We are seeing a significant influx of supply, particularly from Chile, which has forced a rapid downward adjustment in pricing.
The Drop: Chilean cherries (3J), which were trading comfortably at $32–35 just last week, have plummeted to $20–22 this week.
The Strategy: Importers are prioritising turnover over margin. With storage risks rising and the CNY clock ticking, the goal is volume movement, not profit maximisation. This is currently one of the most pronounced week-on-week corrections we have seen in this cycle.
2. A Tale of Two Australian Crops
Australia is currently sending mixed signals, with a sharp divergence between Grapes and Stonefruit.
Grapes (The Bear Case): Australian grape prices have slid to multi-week lows. Reports of heatwaves at origin are forcing growers to push volume quickly, resulting in excess supply hitting the market. While prepack formats remain liquid, the broader grape complex is under pressure.
Stonefruit (The Bull Case): Conversely, stonefruit is the week’s resilience story. Despite similar volume pressures in Australia, a significant portion of fruit has been diverted to China, limiting the oversupply in Singapore. As a key CNY gifting item, demand remains robust, causing prices to hold firm and even edge higher, a sharp contrast to the grape market.
3. The Mandarin Monopoly (and Deterioration)
Unsurprisingly, the citrus market has shifted almost entirely to mandarin oranges. Wholesalers have tunnel vision, clearing mandarin stock to the exclusion of other citrus lines.
However, not all mandarins are winning. We are seeing persistent oversupply and quality deterioration in Chinese varieties:
Papagan is trading around $6.
Hong Mei Ren is hovering near $6.
Both are suffering from weak consumption despite aggressive pricing, as buyers hunt for cheaper alternatives or better quality.
4. POME & Blueberries: The Defensive Play
The rest of the market remains defensive.
POME (Apples/Pears): Activity is subdued. Packham pears and green apples are structurally tight, but buyers are resisting elevated replacement costs. The focus here is strictly on clearing shelf space.
Blueberries: While demand isn't roaring, supply is tight at the lower end (standard sizes). This restricted availability is preventing the kind of price crash seen in cherries, keeping values broadly supported.
The Verdict
Week 6 is defined by a shift from accumulation to liquidation. The delay caused by the Monday holiday has condensed the trading week, forcing importers to chase volume over value.
Key Takeaways for Buyers:
Opportunity in Cherries: The price correction in 3J cherries ($20–22 range) represents a prime buying window for volume movers.
Quality Watch: Be wary of Chinese mandarins (Papagan/Hong Mei Ren) at rock-bottom prices; quality deterioration is a real risk.
Gifting Strength: Expect Australian Stonefruit prices to remain sticky or rise slightly as we approach the final CNY days; do not expect last-minute bargains here.
Comments