China Fuji Apples 2025/26: A Smaller Crop, Sharper Competition, and a Very Different Market Reality

November 2025

The 2025/26 China Fuji apple harvest is underway, and this season carries far more weight than most in recent memory. China remains the world’s largest apple producer, and Fuji remains China’s dominant variety — both in planted area and commercial relevance.

But the story this year is not “business as usual”.For growers, packers, importers, and wholesalers, the 2025/26 season is defined by one key shift:

China has less fruit, more uneven quality, and a widening gap between premium and lower-grade Fuji apples.

This is the year where early planning, region-specific sourcing, and disciplined programmes matter more than simply chasing FOB prices.

1. The Big Picture: China’s Apple Crop Is Smaller in 2025/26

Across all major reporting sources, China’s total apple production for 2025/26 is estimated at:

≈ 38 million metric tons (MMT)

Down from approximately 40.2 MMT in 2024/25 — a decline of about 5%.

China still accounts for roughly half of global apple output, so even a 5% reduction would represent a massive supply shift in the international apple market.

✔ Fuji Still Dominates

Fuji continues to account for 70–75% of China’s total apple production.

This means the 2025/26 Fuji crop is roughly 26–28 MMT, down from ~28–29 MMT the previous year.

In global terms, China will still supply the world with the majority of Fuji apples, just less of it, and with more selective quality.

2. Where the Crop Was Lost: A Season of Weather Stress

The reduction in 2025/26 wasn’t caused by just one event. It was a triple-hit season:

2.1 Heavy Rain & Waterlogging in Shandong

Shandong — a major Fuji production powerhouse — saw excessive rainfall during the pre-harvest weeks.

Key impacts:

• Colour development was heavily disrupted

• Increased russeting and skin defects

• Higher rate of water cracking

• Lower proportion of export-grade fruit

• Regional output down by ~20% in some counties

The market is describing Shandong as having a “short premium, long low-grade” problem.

2.2 Frost in Northern Production Belts

Parts of Hebei, northern Shandong, and surrounding areas experienced late spring frost.

Effects:

• Reduced fruit set

• More off-shape Fuji

• Tighter availability of the larger commercial sizes (72–88)

2.3 Drought Stress in Shaanxi & Loess Plateau

The Loess Plateau — home to some of China’s highest-quality Fuji apples — saw notable water stress earlier in the season.

Consequences:

• Smaller sizing

• Higher sugar concentration (good for flavour)

• But overall, lower tonnage

In summary:

China still has plenty of apples — but premium-quality Fuji is noticeably scarcer.

3. Quality Structure: A Widening Gap Between Premium and Value Grades

This season has created a two-speed Fuji market:

Premium-producing regions (Shaanxi, Gansu, parts of Ningxia)

Characteristics:

• Strong colouring

• Higher Brix due to day–night temperature swings

• Cleaner skin finish

• More uniform sizing

• Better storage performance

Market behaviour:

• These regions saw aggressive buying early in the season.

• Top grades command noticeably higher procurement prices.

• Supply of true export-grade Fuji is tight.

High-volume regions (Shandong, parts of Hebei)

Characteristics:

• Uneven colour

• Higher ratio of russeting, blemishes

• More sizing spread

• Increased risk of internal browning during long storage

Market behaviour:

• Prices at the orchard level are more depressed.

• Buyers are cherry-picking limited “nice” lots.

• The bulk of fruit is discounted to domestic channels or processed.

Why the gap widened in 2025/26

• Weather hit regions differently

• Storage suitability differs

• Exporters and premium retailers are competing for fewer high-quality apples

• Lower-grade lots require heavier sorting and deliver poorer pack-out

This divergence means price ≠ value. What matters this season is yield after sorting and shrink, not just CIF cost.

4. Pricing Dynamics: Tight Premiums, Weak Value Grades

Premium Fuji (high-colour, 72–88 sizes):

• Higher orchard-gate prices

• Strong early-season commitments

• Limited buffer stock

• Good demand from Asia & Middle East markets

Mid-to-low grades:

• Significant price pressure

• Oversupply in weather-hit regions

• Higher logistics risk

• Higher storage and shrink losses

Net Result:

The spread between premium and second-grade Fuji is wider than usual, driven by real quality differences — not market speculation.

5. Structural Forces Behind the Trend

Even without weather events, several long-term trends are shaping the reality of China’s Fuji industry:

5.1 Orchard Restructuring

China continues to push agricultural zoning policies:

• Low-productivity orchards are being removed

• Farmland is being protected for grain crops

• New plantings favour higher-density, modern systems

This pushes supply towards quality efficiency, not volume maximisation.

5.2 Growing competition from new varieties

Domestic consumers are shifting — slowly — toward:

• Branded sweet varieties

• Crisp, aromatic club apples

• Imported varieties (where affordable)

Fuji will remain dominant for years, but it no longer grows in an uncontested landscape.

5.3 Climate variability is becoming permanent

Growers across Shaanxi, Gansu, Shandong and Xinjiang are reporting:

• More frequent extreme weather

• Higher disease pressure

• More difficulty achieving consistent colour

This means seasons like 2025/26 may become more normal than exceptional.

6. What the 2025/26 Season Means for Industry Players

Below is the practical takeaway for each segment.

6.1 For Importers & Wholesalers

• Lock in early programmes for premium Fuji — premium supply is genuinely tight.

• Segment your Fuji portfolio: premium → retail; value grades → processing or price-led channels.

• Blend origins across China and alternative suppliers to reduce volatility.

• Prioritise suppliers with strong sorting protocols, not just low prices.

6.2 For Retailers & E-Commerce

• Expect tighter supply of large, high-colour Fuji.

• Communicate seasonal effects to justify pricing and sizing changes.

• Use origin storytelling (“Loess Plateau Fuji”, “High-altitude Fuji”) to differentiate.

• Review storage practices — weather-affected fruit needs closer monitoring.

6.3 For Growers & Packers

• Invest in better grading, defect removal, and colour separation.

• Strengthen frost protection, irrigation, and canopy management.

• Build long-term buyer programmes instead of relying on peak-season spot markets.

7. What 3YY Fresh Sees in This Year’s Market

From our operational view across Chinese origins:

1. Premium-quality Fuji will be scarce

High-colour, clean-skin, good-pressure Fuji from Shaanxi/Gansu will be limited and expensive.

2. The middle grades will be messy

Sorting costs will go up; pack-out percentages will vary widely.

3. True value lies in disciplined, specification-driven sourcing

This is not the season to chase the cheapest container — it’s the season to chase the right container.

4. Programme-based buying will outperform spot buying

Early committed volumes with premium packers will save headaches later.

8. Closing Insight: 2025/26 Is a Season That Rewards the Prepared

China is still the world’s Fuji engine — but this year, the gears are running tighter.

A smaller crop, weather-driven quality divergence, and changing orchard structures mean:

• Premium fruit is genuinely limited

• Lower grades require more risk management

• Traditional buying patterns need rethinking

The players who adjust fastest — with clearer specifications, multi-origin strategies, and disciplined procurement — will be the ones who extract value this season.

At 3YY Fresh, our role is to help industry partners navigate this new Fuji landscape with clarity, intelligence, and grounded, region-specific insights.